You did not answer my question. I want to know if we will actually reach the goal
established in the Paris Agreement of 2015
I'm not going to lie, I was browsing through the immense ocean of existing information
about the energy crisis, global warming and their consequences when anxiety got the
best of me, so I ended up asking ChatGPT
"Will we reach the goal established in the Paris Agreement in 2015?”
With all the hype surrounding Chat GPT I thought that considering all the available information on consumption trends, deforestation, etc., and the impact that it has had on the planet, surely it would be able to predict whether we will achieve this objective or not...
“Sorry for the earlier confusion. As a language model, I don't have the ability to predict the future. Therefore, I cannot say whether or not the target set in the Paris Agreement for the year 2050 will be achieved.”
It's true, Chat GPT doesn't predict the future, but don't you think that the answer was a politically correct way to wash its hands and not answer “it’s not going to happen”?
Not even 10 years have passed since the agreement in Paris on climate change, where the international community committed to limit the Earth's average temperature below 2ºC compared to pre-industrial levels. "Limit the temperature below 2 ºC": this phrase was undoubtedly the most repeated in all the articles, however it is rarely followed by an explanation to be able to scale what it means and what steps need to be taken to meet this objective. It is estimated that the earth’s temperature before the industrial revolution was about 13 degrees Celsius (56.7 degrees Fahrenheit). Between 2010 and 2019 it has been hotter than ever. If we stick to the latest report on the state of the climate from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), we have just finished the warmest decade since data is available (1850). It seems that not only technology has made unprecedented advances, since we have never before recorded such high temperatures, which resulted in the average temperature of the earth in 2019 being around 1.1 ºC above pre-industrial levels. Four years before this record, the agreement was established in Paris to limit this increase and the bet was even redoubled: not to exceed the level of 1.5 degrees at the end of this century and achieve climate neutrality by 2050, that is, that the amount of CO2 released into the atmosphere, the main gas causing global warming, is equivalent to that absorbed by nature. Among the measures that would help to stop global warming we find the gradual reduction of CO2 emissions: up to 45% in the next decade and to zero after 2050. You may think: “well, but these data that you are mentioning is from 3 years ago and considering that the agreement was in 2015, surely there has been progress” … Not again they said... 2022 closed with one of the highest temperatures in history. The consequences of the increase in the average temperature of the Earth range from the rise of the ocean’s levels to the proliferation of extreme weather events. Meteorological disasters have increased in frequency and severity in recent decades. For example, according to the Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), the number of weather-related disasters has doubled in the past two decades compared to the previous two decades. In addition, according to the WMO, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, droughts, and heavy rainfall, have increased in many parts of the world in recent decades. On the eve of World Planet Day, I reflect on what I am personally doing to reduce carbon emissions. Without a doubt, I cannot stop the production of energy responsible for the best part of the greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, I cannot stop the deforestation of the Amazon, I cannot stop transportation worldwide. Neither I am naive and I am aware that stopping everything would bring other types of social and economic consequences. But I do believe that everything counts ; that I can choose transportation contemplating carbon emissions; that I can choose to save energy in my home, choose a job that is aware of its impact on the environment and also consume products and services from companies that are responsible for their environmental impact. I work in a wool top manufacturing company. How this fiber affects the environment is a thorny issue. On one hand, this natural fiber provides us not only with beautiful and comfortable qualities that we can enjoy, such as softness and breathability, but also for our health it has positive effects such as helping us to sleep better, among other benefits. Wool is more resistant to odors and dirt than synthetic fibers such as acrylic. While acrylic sweaters usually require more frequent washing and shed micro plastics, wool sweaters are washed after several uses and aren’t dried with a machine, which is positive for the environment. However, it is true that sheep emit methane, a gas that causes greenhouse effect. However, sheep have been living in this planet since before the first industrial revolution. Why is this traditional and lifelong labor being questioned now? Like everything, you have to take the context into account. Cutting down forests to make room for cattle has very serious environmental consequences. However, in many territories where developing communities do not have fertile soil for agriculture, raising sheep is their only source of income. There are also geographical sites, such as Uruguay, where I live, that stand out for their vast green territories, with the presence of aquifers and natural forests where sheep thrive naturally. We are talking about farms that have been run by families for generations, who have taken care of the animals on horseback, and who understand that only a healthy animal, without stress, can produce high quality fibers. In Uruguay, rural producers have organic wool (GOTS) and animal welfare (RWS) certificates. On the other hand, in Uruguay the practice of mulesing is not necessary. In the company where I work, Engraw S.A, we process this wool using 98% renewable energy and we also have Carbon Neutral and Cradle to Cradle certifications. Likewise, our producers are aware of the environmental footprint that sheep leave on our planet, which is why they are working together with the Savory Institute to develop regenerative livestock practices certified under the Land to Market program. As a Uruguayan citizen I am proud to live in a country that is a leader in the use of renewable sources in Latin America. Our flat landscape and our beautiful ocean and river coasts place us in an ideal spot for the generation of solar, wind and hydraulic energy. In fact, in the last decade Uruguay has positioned itself as one of the countries with the best energy transition towards renewable sources, both in the region and in the world. At the end of 2019, the International Energy Agency (IEA) rated Uruguay as the leader in Latin America in energy production and fourth in the world in terms of levels of electricity generation from wind and solar sources. In 2019, for example, almost 100% of the energy was generated through renewable sources. Knowing all the above I was feeling optimistic when researching for the impact of each country on the world regarding energy consumption. Silly me to forget that Uruguay is just a small marc on the globe. But I am still hopeful since, like Uruguay, other countries have carried out policies to reduce their emissions. We are decarbonizing, but not nearly fast enough. Getting on track for the NZE Scenario will require a drastic measure in spendings on clean energy alongside a shift towards much higher investment in emerging market and developing economies. Let’s not sit and wait, let’s take control of the emissions and the impact each of us have on this planet before asking Chat GPT “How much does it cost to live on mars”.
Susana Raquet